October 3, 2017

UTT Assesses Las Vegas Attack As A Jihadi Operation

There has been a lot of speculation in both mainstream media and social media about Sunday night’s tragedy in Las Vegas, where, according to the latest from the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department, 516 people were injured and 59 people were murdered by Stephen Paddock.

Before any real information about the shooter was put out via U.S. media outlets, UTT published a tweet at 6:34 AM CST on Monday assessing the Las Vegas attack was likely a jihadi operation.  So far as UTT has been able to ascertain, we were the first organization in America to reach this conclusion.

The following were the basis for that assessment:

  1. The Islamic State has previously called for attacks on the U.S. homeland and has specifically mentioned Las Vegas, Nevada as a target.
  2. The Islamic State issued a statement last week through one of it’s information outlets Nasher News calling for muslims to avoid places in America (and elsewhere) where “Crusaders” gather and have mentioned major events as good targets.
  3. In recent days, jihadis have launched attacks in Europe.
  4. The target of the attack.
  5. The method and execution of the attack.

While investigation reveals Paddock was a politically left-wing individual with possible Marxist ties to Antifa and other groups, the evidence points to jihad.

Since UTT first published it’s initial assessment, the Islamic State claimed the Las Vegas attack was conducted by one of their “soldiers.”  It should be noted, this is a very strong data point in understanding the events in Las Vegas.

The Islamic State has never claimed responsibility for an attack that was not carried out by a jihadi.

Later in the day Monday, the Islamic State issued a second public message calling Stephen Paddock a “soldier of the caliphate” and a “martyr” and stating he converted to Islam in the last few months.

The Islamic State further gave Paddock the Arabic name of Abu Abed al Bir Al-Amriki.

The fact the FBI found “no evidence” of links between Paddock and “terrorist organizations” is, in fact, evidence he is likely linked to such organizations.

The FBI has been wrong on every single attack of this nature over the last 8 years.

The FBI had investigations on and interviewed nearly all of the jihadis who ended up killing Americans in the attacks in Little Rock, San Bernadino, Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando, Boston, and others.

The government called the massacre at Fort Hood, Texas and the beheading of a woman in Oklahoma as “workplace violence.”

The government continues to catastrophically fail in their basic duties to (1) know the enemy and (2) protect the public.

UTT reminds the public that on numerous occasions we have identified threats inside communities that later produced jihadis who initiated attacks inside the United States.  Once such case involves the Islamic Community Center of Phoenix (ICCP), which UTT included in several presentations given to law enforcement in Arizona beginning in September 2014.  UTT briefed law enforcement and local leaders that the center and its leaders are a danger to the community.

On May 3, 2015, two muslim jihadis from the ICCP went to Garland, Texas to kill people at the Draw Mohammad contest.  Fortunately, the jihadis were killed by police before they could harm innocent non-muslims.

While UTT makes this assessment based on the facts at hand, we will be monitoring the ongoing investigation, as well as the response by law enforcement (federal and local), state and national leadership, as well as the Islamic State.  We will continue to provide the information and our assessment of the situation to American citizens.

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About JG
John Guandolo is a US Naval Academy graduate, served as an Infantry/Reconnaissance officer in the United States Marines and is a combat veteran, served as a Special Agent in the FBI from 1996-2008, and was recruited out of the FBI by the Department of Defense to conduct strategic analysis of the Islamic threat. He is the President and Founder of Understanding the Threat (UTT).
36 Comments
  1. I’m curious where you got the info that Haddock had leftwing sympathies. I haven’t seen any definitive proof of that, except for the possible picture of him at the ‘Pussy Hat’ protest near his home. IMHO, it’s impossible to tell from that picture if it’s actually him. If you have any other evidence for leftist ties, I’d love to see it.K

    • Katy, while the picture of him in the pink hat – and I am also not confident it is him – is telling, based on biographical information on where he lived, the crowd he hung out with, and his political leanings all go into UTT’s comments Paddock falls on the left-wing side of the political aisle.

  2. Sir the Government isn’t catastrophically failing in their Duties.
    They just have shifted allegiances to our enemies.

    For we became their enemy when we challenged their power, however modest our objections, however reasonable it may be to object to being bankrupted and displaced from our lands by the foreign – when we challenged the powers of the government and so their interests we became their enemy.

    Politics is Power.
    The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

    As for the FBI: Orders are Orders. They’re not smart enough or ambitious enough to aspire to the larger agenda of displacing the troublesome native born American Majority but they do have careers, pensions and the like as their price.

  3. It is a catastrophe that the FBI is so loathe to tell us the truth. Know thy enemy.

  4. I know they guy had money but to say he bought all of the guns, ammo and ammonium nitrate in my mind is not true. This was indoctrinated and used as a patsy to cover-up the real terrorists who planned and orchestrated this attack. How does a 64 year old out of shape man get all of that weapons/ammo unnoticed into those rooms and rum back and forth to those rooms? Where is the video from the hotel cameras, oh that’s right the FBI has it.

    The authorities have stated he only had AR15’s. The first shots fired did not sound like 5.66 rounds but rather 7.62 (Squad machine gun/M60/AK47). I have fired both 15’s and 60’s and know what they sound like. Their narrative is made up and their facts are wrong. As stated this is a cover-up. The authors of this narrative were deep state in nature and no doubt globalists’ hell bent on destroying this country.

    • Kisk & JG, as veterans with experience with these weapons, and thank you for your service, can you comment on this statement by Las Vegas Sheriff Lombardo at a press conference at 5 PM Pacific time on Wednesday.

      *over 200 strafing rounds were fired through the door at the responding Mandalay Bay security guard, Jose Campos.

      Commented “Another number that makes you go ‘HMMM’ – Are there pictures of and drum or belt feeds? Even a 50 round clip would require 4 changes.”
      A Reply – Wonder what the door looked like after that?

      In your experience, What would the door and nearby walls look like after 200 rounds and would they really have had to break it down to later enter the room?

  5. Having read a fair number of spy books, a creative author of these sorts of stories might write this story differently — The dead perp was really a Dufus victim. Dufus, a big gambler, mets up with some fellow big gamblers (who were really terrorists looking for a Dufus victim). They somehow befriend Dufus and get invited to his house, where they drug Dufus, drop off some guns and weapons as ‘evidence’, then they wheel chair Dufus up to the casino room as grandpa visiting Vegas for an ailing old man’s last fling (who is only ailing because he’s been drugged). Then the terrorists commit the massacre, after a couple minutes they shoot Dufus to make it look like a suicide, perhaps figure a way to make it sound like shooting is still going on, and then they leave with one of the terrorist playing the role of ‘grandpa’ in the wheel chair before security shows up to discover Dufus has killed himself and is lying dead surrounded by an arsenal of weapons he probably didn’t know how to operate… Dufus had gloves on, so he has no prints on the guns or anything in the room…

    Perhaps the one clue for Sherlock to unwind is how come none of the weapons at Dufus’s house have Dufus’s finger prints and no other prints, smeared or not… And then some residual drugs are discovered in Dufus’s blood….

    • So far, This theory is closest to my own. In addition to the scenario posted above, I would like to suggest the possibility that the actual terrorist may have created a false floor or wall escape route which was concealed. I remember not long ago, El Chapo escaped from a maximum security prison through a secret hole hidden behind the shower stall. This theory, of course, is only a possibility because as we are told that only this one guy was in the room, nobody will ever see the hotel camera footage which would show who may or may not have entered the room. I feel that there is not enough evidence to rule out a lone suspect. To let this terrorist attack go unpunished by letting this patsy take the blame would be a serious mistake that we cannot accept. We (the public) deserve the full proof, all the video footage, facts and such they consider to be the complete explanation.

  6. […] “The Islamic State has previously called for attacks on the U.S. homeland and has specifically mentioned Las Vegas, Nevada as a target. The Islamic State issued a statement last week through one of it’s information outlets Nasher News calling for muslims to avoid places in America (and elsewhere) where “Crusaders” gather and have mentioned major events as good targets. In recent days, jihadis have launched attacks in Europe. The target of the attack. The method and execution of the attack.” UTT […]

  7. How much of an influence in misdirection would HR McMaster & Mustafa Ali play in hiding the true identity of Vegas Terrorist? It was clear back in May 2017 ISIS called for terrorism specifically in Las Vegas. Why are Feds now surprised? Does it mean they do not take ISIS threats serious? If so, what does that mean for future attacks on America & killing of Americans? Why won’t our government officials take the Islamic Terror threat serious?

    • The government has been saying the Islamic State is weakening and dissipating which is an assessment with which UTT does not concur.

  8. Not buying the islam angle. Anti-fa angle yes…possibly being blackmailed? Could Anti-fa and ISIS be colluding- maybe.

    • We understand your reluctance. As we have said, based on the information that is known right now, the jihad angle is a reasonable and logical route to follow. Antifa is training overseas and is a terrorist organization. Yes, the jihadis and the Marxists in US are working together at the ground level. There is a lot of crossover there.

  9. Analysis of this alternative report would be appreciated:

    Las Vegas Mass Shooting: False Flag, PsyOp & Black Op to Distract
    http://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=85146

    Thank you.

  10. John,
    Check your sources to see if Antifa literature/evidence was found in the shooters hotel room when they shot him. Antifa is now travelling to the ME to train with/join ISIS groups.

    • That is correct. My sources on the ground will not confirm Antifa material was found in the hotel room. We are pursuing information hour to hour right now.

  11. just fyi…today the Las Vegas sheriff said the following as reported by in News conference and several new oulets-“This person may have radicalised, unbeknownst to us, and we want to identify that source” I find this very curious…does anyone have any other info as to this comment by the sheriff.

  12. By the government’s past track record on investigations about jihadi attacks, I am inclined to believe there is just too much that
    is not being reported about this shooting in Las Vegas. Having been a federal law officer and investigator I am aware of the importance for the police and FBI to keep some information close to the vest. If they are doing their job they are looking into everything possible about Paddock’s background, and that most importantly scanning his hard drives and cell phone records, as well as trying to identify any suspicious contacts. I would have thought that the FBI would have rushed to the Philippines to interview
    his girl friend. They already knew that he wired as much as a hundred thousand dollars to her or someone in the Philippines. There is also the rumor that her credit card was used to secure the hotel room at Mandalay Bay. It is obvious that the hotel would not have accepted Paddock using another person’s credit card to check in.

    The bottom line, as a curious retired federal agent myself, there is a whole lot more to this case than we are being told at present and I am not the only retire cop or agent who believes that.

    • Excellent profiling. Deep n very likely. But I feel his,girlfriend knew nothing. For all outward appearances it seemed that they were a compatible and loving couple and if he cared about her and knew what he was going to do it , he wouId want her out of the way so she wouldn’t be an accessory to the fact .how convenient for him to say ” go see your family in the Philippines ” and wire her some money and I’ll join you later and that kept her out of the Limelight

  13. […] By John Guandolo Originally published in Understanding the Threat (UTT) on October 3, 2017 […]

  14. It seems to me that most everything said in this article is reasonable and may be true, but I am least sure about, “The fact the FBI found “no evidence” of links between Paddock and ‘terrorist organizations’ is, in fact, evidence he is likely linked to such organizations.” ISIS is a terrorist organization that promotes terror by clearly associating itself with death and destruction against non-ISIS people and property. ISIS did claim responsibility after the incident; why would it not want a clear prior link between itself and the murderer?

    • Stewart, this is a good question. Our assessment is based on facts as we know them right now. It is a reasonable assessment based on what we know. There is no other reasonable assessment out there. If new information comes out – which it may – that moves the logical understanding of the attack in another direction, UTT will pursue that.

  15. You’re right. And it’s time to respond. Per the Supreme Law of the Land Americans are bound to abolish, dismantle, “throw off” however you would like to phrase it, this treasonous tyrannical group of people who have seized power from the people.
    Unfortunately these enemies have been very cunning in their “long march” to power & Americans have no idea WHO they are therefore they’ve no idea that they’ve been subverted or are supposed to BE fighting anyone. By the time they figure it out it will be far too late as it’s already too late. Nearly 1/2 of the US population has been “planted”. They’ve no allegiance to America whatsoever and in fact also seek to see it’s demise.
    Well played commies, well played.

  16. agree 100% I could suspect that this cross-over model was partially developed in Europe by extreme left adherents who find jihadi activity useful for whatever bin they are pushing – an obvious example would be the degree of cooperation between these folks at so_called anti nazi protests. at least that would be my observation from gleaning data from the media and various social media forums. we are in a war and the inability of the media to use accurate language is a serious impediment.

  17. […] of the crusader gathering”: GellerWhy did cops take so long to stop Las Vegas shooter?: DailyMailUTT Assesses Las Vegas Attack As A Jihadi Operation: […]

  18. […] Source: UTT Assesses Las Vegas Attack As A Jihadi Operation – Understanding the Threat […]

  19. […] Supply: UTT Assesses Las Vegas Assault As A Jihadi Operation – Understanding the Risk […]

  20. Homeland Security had the word purge of all descriptions of an Islam.. and the jihadi..has anything changed? The words were purged from later editions of the 9/11 Commission Report since I have a copy of an old one and it has all the adjectives. So what about the FBI do they have still operate under the “word purge order”? I am curious if the police departments also received word purge orders? Is this word purge order a response to a Islam sharia law.? I wish the video of the conference in Chicago, where the MB and CAIR representative called for a revolution by aligning with BLM as a bond of allegiance that has support of Antifa,(that acts just like fascists) could be shown in the media.I found it disturbing that the speech was hardly peaceful as it suggested they had revolutions in other parts of the world why not in the United States or as she stated here, but everyone else has to be silent or called racist or islamophobic…instead of silencing information about commands of the ideology that activate terror. With Hezbollah marching in the streets of the U.K. with green flags and uniforms it seems we are heading back into the dark ages with narrow streets that are dead ends.

  21. Could this be another failed attempt like Fast & Furious ? The FBI came out with comments quickly. The amount of guns IN the room could be for a Sale to terrorists. He could have been a Sting operative. Two different videos were on facebook from bystanders, of the same guy at two angles, of a man ON the ground shooting. One video is very clear, no mistake, he takes a stance, his right elbow is behind him, as holding a rifle, and muzzle flashes were in front of him. I hope these people put those videos on a flash drive and save /Hide them for a later date. The originals will probably be confiscated IF someone is covering up for another botched job. We know they all do that, and we cant trust our own government any more. Another man outside said there were multiple shooters. At a nearby building, Security guards were chasing a man wearing a guard jacket. Two people saw this. Even given an Arab name would fit into a Sting, if he built a relationship with terrorists. They find out, kill him, and decide to do some damage while they are there. Doctors have said any prescriptions he had would not allow him to do so much detailed planning. Nothing else in his background fits a radical. A guy enjoying his wealth is not going to go bananas and join ISIS.

  22. Wasn’t it convenient that they had drills day before and day of which included several agencies. After all, it was a GREAT convenience that the FBI HRT was on site!

  23. […] is sure the evidence will show this was a significant Islamic State operation.  See UTT articles here here and […]

  24. Under the circumstances, jihad should assumed and later ruled out if evidence points elsewhere. Islamic State claims of responsibility notwithstanding, this attack had the primary earmarks of Islamic terror, or jihad—the target, method, planning and execution, and mass victims—Authorities, however, have decided they need to rule out jihad before any secondary evidence is in. It is painful, profoundly frustrating, and extremely annoying watching our leaders submit to Islam. Sad to say, but for now, it appears we the people are on our own. Eternal vigilance is in order.

  25. […] to Understanding The Threat (UTT), the bureau had investigations on and interviewed almost all of the jihadis who eventually […]

  26. […] is simply untrue. In the early morning after the attack, Understanding the Threat (UTT) published – via social media – the Las Vegas attack was likely a jihad attack, and by noon of […]

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